As Bashar al-Assad departed for exile in Moscow, the decades-old police state ruled by his family swiftly disintegrated. Now, Syria stands at a pivotal moment, with new rulers promising to shape a more inclusive future. But questions remain: can Syria overcome its divisions and establish a democratic state, or will it descend further into chaos?
The Collapse of Assad’s Regime
While Assad managed to maintain control since the onset of Syria’s civil war in 2011, his regime’s sudden collapse under the pressure of a rebel offensive was shocking. Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebranded radical faction with a complex history linked to Al-Qaeda, the assault exposed the fragility of the Syrian Arab Army. HTS has now emerged as a key power broker in Syria, although other factions are vying for dominance.
A Lesson in Hubris
Assad’s downfall is a stark reminder of the dangers of authoritarian hubris. By refusing to negotiate a peaceful transfer of power with moderate opposition groups, he prolonged a devastating conflict that claimed countless innocent lives. His failure to learn from the fates of other deposed Arab leaders — such as Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qadhafi, and Hosni Mubarak — sealed his regime’s fate.
The Role of External Forces
International factors also played a decisive role in Assad’s ouster. The United States, long advocating for regime change in Damascus, achieved its goal, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Assad’s departure as a “historic day.” However, this event dealt a significant blow to Russia, which lost a crucial ally in the Arab world, and Iran, as it weakened a cornerstone of its so-called ‘Axis of Resistance.’
Challenges for a Post-Assad Syria
The euphoria following Assad’s exit is palpable, especially among Syrians who endured years of oppression under his rule. However, the real test lies ahead. To avoid repeating the chaos seen in post-Qadhafi Libya, Syria must prioritize establishing a stable and inclusive administration. Rival factions must resist the temptation to fight for power, and efforts must focus on creating a democratic state that respects the rights of all ethnic, religious, and sectarian groups.
A grim possibility looms if extremist factions within the opposition seize control, succeeding where groups like the Islamic State failed. Such an outcome would have catastrophic consequences for the region and beyond.
Respecting Syria’s Sovereignty
As Syria begins rebuilding, external actors must respect its sovereignty. Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights and ongoing airstrikes by the US and Israel are significant destabilizing factors. These activities must cease to allow Syria to recover and rebuild as a unified state.
Hope for a New Syria
The fall of Assad presents an opportunity for Syria to turn a new page. While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the ultimate goal should be a democratic nation where all Syrians can coexist in peace and dignity. Achieving this will require unity among Syrians and restraint from international actors, ensuring the country's long-awaited chance for stability and freedom is not squandered.
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